Tanzania as the Best Destination for Emerging Markets Real Estate
We have been investing in Tanzania for the past two years.
What I see on the ground is optimism, growth, and courage. People here are building. They are starting businesses, expanding operations, and betting on the future with real conviction.
It is also a capital-constrained market. Many people want to participate in safari, tourism, or Tanzanian real estate more broadly, but for one reason or another, capital has not been readily accessible. That constraint creates pockets of opportunity where disciplined investors can find potentially outsized returns.
Let me share what we are seeing across two dimensions: the broader real estate market and the safari tourism sector.
The Macro Picture
Tanzania has a population of approximately 72 million people, growing at around 3% per year. That is one of the fastest rates in the world. The median age is just 17.6 years, meaning the country has an enormous and expanding young workforce entering the economy every year. By 2046, the UN projects the population will reach nearly 120 million.
The economy is keeping pace. GDP grew by 5.9% in 2025, and the IMF projects 6.3% growth for 2026, more than double the global average. This makes me feel sorry for Europe, where I come from. Inflation remains well contained at around 3.5%, which is remarkable stability for a frontier market. GDP per capita rose to approximately $1,300 in 2025, a 7.2% year-on-year increase. These are not dramatically high numbers in absolute terms, but the trajectory is consistent and accelerating.
Urbanisation is a key driver. Approximately 40% of the population now lives in urban areas, growing at nearly 5% per year. That is one of the fastest urbanisation rates globally. Every year, hundreds of thousands of people move into cities, creating sustained demand for housing, commercial space, and infrastructure.
Yet the supply of quality real estate is limited. Most new development comes to market with mixed design, functional but far from refined. There is very little that feels polished or intentional, even though there is demand for it. People want better spaces. Anything built in this segment is quickly sold out.
The economics reflect this gap. I see opportunities to build prime residential real estate at approximately $1,500 per square meter and sell at a final price of around $2,500 per square meter. Most sales happen off plan, which means capital cycles faster and demand is validated before construction is complete. That spread, in a market with growing purchasing power and limited quality supply, is significant.
Right now, Chinese investors are pushing into Dar es Salaam, economic capital, and the coastal areas. Being on the ground, we see significant purchasing power in the market that is not yet fully reflected in the built environment. Also private sector credit expanded by over 20% in 2025.
For real estate developers and investors who can deliver quality at the right price point, the gap between what exists and what the market wants is wide.
The Tourism Sector
Tanzania recorded approximately 2.14 million international tourist arrivals in 2024, an 18.5% increase over the prior year and 40% above pre-pandemic levels. Tourism earnings reached $3.9 billion, up 15.7% year-on-year. In 2025, arrivals continued growing, reaching approximately 2.3 million.
For context, Morocco welcomed 17.4 million tourists in 2024 and is on pace to exceed 19 million in 2025. Egypt recorded 15.7 million. South Africa consistently attracts over 8 million international arrivals per year.
Yet Tanzania holds some of Africa's most iconic natural destinations. One country contains:
Africa's tallest mountain, Kilimanjaro
The Serengeti
Ngorongoro Crater
Tarangire
Selous/Nyerere
Zanzibar
Few places on the continent, or in the world, combine this level of natural capital within a single border. The gap between what Tanzania offers and the number of visitors it currently receives suggests there is enormous room for growth. Air connectivity is improving, with Brussels Airlines launching direct flights to Kilimanjaro in mid-2026 and Air Tanzania expanding regional and international routes.
Safari Real Estate: A Structural Opportunity
Inside the national parks, new lodge permits are limited and development is controlled. Supply cannot expand freely. This is by design, and it protects both the ecosystem and the value of existing assets.
Right now, there is a permitting window open. The government is working to bring accommodation levels in line with growing tourism demand while keeping development sustainable for the parks. Based on what we see, I believe this window will close within two to three years.
Safari lodges in the higher-end segment typically command strong pricing. Rates in the luxury category range from $800 to over $2,000 per guest per night. Combined with structural supply constraints and growing demand, the economics are compelling for well-located, well-operated properties.
Tanzania sits at an intersection that is rare in emerging markets: a population of 72 million growing at 3% annually, GDP growth above 6%, inflation under 4%, natural capital that is globally significant, a tourism sector with strong momentum, and a real estate market that is underbuilt relative to demand.
The regulatory framework inside national parks limits competition by design. The macro environment supports long-term asset appreciation. And the country's tourism sector is still a fraction of what comparable African destinations attract, despite arguably stronger natural offerings.
The opportunity is real, but it rewards those who are present and willing to build.
We are here. We are building. And we see this as one of the most interesting real estate markets in the world right now.
